Click here to Keypad to see the original P.82  | 中文版

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Translation by Bonnie Chan (Keypad).

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Picture this erratic scenario – it is January 2017 in Washington DC, USA. Donald Trump takes the Oath of office as the President of the United States. He then kicks off a series of new policies: withdraw from the United Nations’ Paris Climate Agreement, ban all Muslims from entering the US, allow countries such as Saudi Arabia to possess nuclear weapons, meet up with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and last but not least, build a great wall to separate the US from Mexico.

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Assuming you do not live under a rock, there is no doubt that you have heard of Donald Trump – the presidential candidate of the Republican Party in the US. He is a New York real estate tycoon, yet a novice in the political arena. He has insulted women, Muslims and Mexicans with his outrageous speeches. However, the greater the real estate mogul turns up the intensity on his racist, sexist and xenophobic rhetoric, the more popular he becomes. Trump is campaigning to build a ‘tall wall’ to keep illegal immigrants out of the US. A 3,200-km-wall would be built across the border between the US and Mexico. This distance allows you to travel from Hong Kong to Shenyang via the future High Speed Rail. If you drew a 3,200-milestraight line from Hong Kong, you could reach Sapporo, Japan.

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Such a huge project happened over history once. If you are thinking of the Great Wall of China, then you are correct. The Qin emperors joined the city walls of various states to prevent attacks by nomadic Huns. The Ming emperors used the wall to defend themselves against the Mongols. Boasting of 21km in length, this wall is seven times longer than Trump’s envisioned border wall. Even though we were taught in primary school that the Great Wall “starts with the Shanhai pass from the East, and reaches the Jiayu pass in the West”, this is not accurate. In fact, there is a section of Great Wall to the east of the Shanhai pass, and extends all the way to the Yalu River. Therefore, the Eastern starting point of the Great Wall should be Hushan in the Liaoning Province. We should also address one more misconception: contrary to public myth, it is not possible to see the Great Wall directly from the moon. The Great Wall is less than 10m in its width, and the distance between the Earth and the moon is 38,000km. Hence, the proportion of scale would be like looking at a mere sewing thread in Tsim Sha Tsui from the Peak.

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Let us take a look at the practicalities of Trump’s proposed wall. In order to avoid illegal immigrants from entering, the wall should be at least 6m tall. The foundation must be 1.5m in depth so that no one can easily dig their way through it. What building material should the architect pick then? Wood would be automatically ruled out for such a colossal wall. Not only is its maintenance very costly, it is also highly environmentally unfriendly. Steel or aluminum would also be a poor choice as they are too expensive. Using Masonry would also be impractical, as it is a labour-intensive and time-consuming method.

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Cement and concrete would be the remaining choice. With respect to cement, there are two options. The first option of the cast-in-place approach is a very common method but the variations in climatic conditions would make it hard to implement for a wall that spreads across 3200km. The best solution would be to produce precast concrete panels in a factory before delivering them to the site for assembly.

 

 

 

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Some American engineers have already begun developing prototype designs: 20cm-thick precast concrete panel of 1.5m by 3m. More than 5 million pieces of panel are required for the whole project. After adding up the foundations and columns, 9.6 million metre square of cement is needed, and we could build 11 Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge with these material.

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Such project would spend at least HK$90 billion, where such cost could well cover the construction of the Hong Kong High Speed Rail. MTR Corporation would pay the bill for the Hong Kong High Speed Rail, and the Mexican Government might need to do the same for this wall. It is like asking the Huns to pay for the Great Wall. Sounds quite unbelievable, right? Well, the Mexican Government said “no” immediately. Yet Trump then arrogantly insist to build the wall 10 feet taller as a penalty of saying “no” – probably the most childish debate in history, ever.

 

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Trump claimed he devised the perfect way to force the Mexicans to pay for the wall. He found that those Mexicans who are currently staying in the US would telex transfer an annual sum of US$24 billion back to Mexico. If he is elected, he will immediately forbid such type of money transfer, until Mexico pay US$0.5 – 1 billion for compensation. This is simply blackmail. Perhaps Trump is not aware of the multiple and various ways to transfer money in the modern world. For example, Mexicans could easily transfer funds to some other country before directing it back to Mexico.

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Apart from funding problems, there are issues such as environment, land resumption and manpower — it’s clear that Mexicans won’t be taking up the job. Even if Trump eventually comes up with “concrete solutions”, how effective can a large wall stop illegal immigration? The US Government has been building barbed wire along the border. One-third of it has been completed, and yet they found such installation costly yet ineffective. There remain many technical difficulties on the execution side. Illegal immigrants will always find a way – from digging underground, hiding in cross-border vehicles, climbing ladders or taking the sea route. 30% to 50% of illegal immigrants originated from overstaying. They would legally travel to the US, in which the border wall would not block any of them out. When you think about it, is it worthwhile to pay HK$90 billion for such a wall? Don’t forget the extra costs for maintenances, and the tradeoffs in the environment and political aspects.

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The US Government has been building barbed wire along the border. One-third of it has been completed, and yet they found such installation costly yet ineffective. There remain many technical difficulties on the execution side. Illegal immigrants will always find a way – from digging underground, hiding in cross-border vehicles, climbing ladders or taking the sea route. 30% to 50% of illegal immigrants originated from overstaying. They would legally travel to the US, in which the border wall would not block any of them out. When you think about it, is it worthwhile to pay HK$90 billion for such a wall? Don’t forget the extra costs for maintenances, and the tradeoffs in the environment and political aspects.

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Economists consider the possible anointment of “President Trump” as one of top ten greatest threats to the world – which makes this on-par with terrorism. Trump never thinks twice about his policies. Such overwhelming border-wall proposal is deemed as relatively “reasonable” compared to his other policies. The real horror is that he currently has a large base of supporters in US who believes in his ideals. The existence of such mentality is a slap in the face for modern civilization and step backwards for humanity.

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